trader889
Jan 26, 11:18 PM
You can't tell much about where a company is going by looking at P/E, as by definition, this is a backwards-looking statistic. All of the companies you mention are growing far more slowly than Apple, which is why their trailing P/E ratios are lower. This is sort of what you said, but it's worth clarifying that you can't necessarily compare P/E ratios between companies with vastly different growth rates.
True, that's why I like to look at the PEG Ratio (P/E to Growth). If we take the current price of 130 minus cash net of payables and receivables (approx $17 a share), you get 113 for the "enterprise" value of Apple. I'll give it a conservative $5/share earnings this year, for a P/E of 23. According to Yahoo, we have an estimate of 30% growth this year, so we are getting a PEG of less than 1 for this year. Less than 1 is cheap, HOWEVER, it doesn't mean it can't/won't get cheaper.
I'm long Apple, so I have a bias, but here are some things to think about:
1) Market is reacting to bad numbers for the ipod, supposedly bad numbers for the iphone, recession concerns etc.. Do you think Apple is not going to come out with anything new this year that can add to the bottom line?
2) Apple is opening up more new stores worldwide. I believe their average sales at the stores is about $4000/sq foot. Their first China store is opening up in Beijing this year (think Olympics). Also, despite some of the headlines about no China iphone deal, CEO of China Mobile (370 million subscribers) stated this past weekend in Davos, Switzerland "We've not started any formal negotiations with Apple. The door is open to all for discussions about fashionable phones". This pretty reiterates what Steve Jobs said. Also, let's not forget all the other countries that have no iphone deals.
3) $18 billion in cash. Let's say that this earns 2%. Comes out to about 30,000,000 a month or .03 per share in earnings just on interest. On the conference call, I think one of the analysts said that Apple is averaging about $1 billion a quarter in cash, although last quarter was killer when they added $3 billion.
4) 45% of Apple's revenues come from overseas. This will only get larger as they open more stores overseas. Unless we get a worldwide recession, overseas sales should help cushion any US slowdown. Also, all the US analysts keep coming up with their updates based upon their "channel" checks, does this include overseas channel checks? I doubt it. So be wary of what they say.
5) Personally, I think the Macbook Air was developed with Japan in mind. In previous conference calls, CFO said Japan was one of the weaker markets. As some of you may know, Japan loves small, ultraportable computers.
Feel to comment/criticize, but as one poster said, if you think Apple is finished as a company, sell. If you think the future still looks good, don't look at the price of Apple for 3 months or as Warren Buffet says, 10 years..lol.
True, that's why I like to look at the PEG Ratio (P/E to Growth). If we take the current price of 130 minus cash net of payables and receivables (approx $17 a share), you get 113 for the "enterprise" value of Apple. I'll give it a conservative $5/share earnings this year, for a P/E of 23. According to Yahoo, we have an estimate of 30% growth this year, so we are getting a PEG of less than 1 for this year. Less than 1 is cheap, HOWEVER, it doesn't mean it can't/won't get cheaper.
I'm long Apple, so I have a bias, but here are some things to think about:
1) Market is reacting to bad numbers for the ipod, supposedly bad numbers for the iphone, recession concerns etc.. Do you think Apple is not going to come out with anything new this year that can add to the bottom line?
2) Apple is opening up more new stores worldwide. I believe their average sales at the stores is about $4000/sq foot. Their first China store is opening up in Beijing this year (think Olympics). Also, despite some of the headlines about no China iphone deal, CEO of China Mobile (370 million subscribers) stated this past weekend in Davos, Switzerland "We've not started any formal negotiations with Apple. The door is open to all for discussions about fashionable phones". This pretty reiterates what Steve Jobs said. Also, let's not forget all the other countries that have no iphone deals.
3) $18 billion in cash. Let's say that this earns 2%. Comes out to about 30,000,000 a month or .03 per share in earnings just on interest. On the conference call, I think one of the analysts said that Apple is averaging about $1 billion a quarter in cash, although last quarter was killer when they added $3 billion.
4) 45% of Apple's revenues come from overseas. This will only get larger as they open more stores overseas. Unless we get a worldwide recession, overseas sales should help cushion any US slowdown. Also, all the US analysts keep coming up with their updates based upon their "channel" checks, does this include overseas channel checks? I doubt it. So be wary of what they say.
5) Personally, I think the Macbook Air was developed with Japan in mind. In previous conference calls, CFO said Japan was one of the weaker markets. As some of you may know, Japan loves small, ultraportable computers.
Feel to comment/criticize, but as one poster said, if you think Apple is finished as a company, sell. If you think the future still looks good, don't look at the price of Apple for 3 months or as Warren Buffet says, 10 years..lol.
Moyank24
Apr 30, 10:14 PM
Do words have no meaning? There can be no party without me there!
Whatever gets you through the night.
Whatever gets you through the night.
rjohnstone
Apr 29, 03:55 PM
I will have to take a look at DoubleTwist, again.
Just an FYI though, it won't sync over DRM content. That stuff is locked to iTunes and any iPod associated with the account.
It's based on demand. If it's still popular its more expensive - no matter how old it is.
The price increase from Apple was mainly done to have the music be DRM free.
Just an FYI though, it won't sync over DRM content. That stuff is locked to iTunes and any iPod associated with the account.
It's based on demand. If it's still popular its more expensive - no matter how old it is.
The price increase from Apple was mainly done to have the music be DRM free.
Eldiablojoe
Apr 25, 09:54 PM
The pain will go away. And I promise that if the seer ever clears you, I won't vote for you.
Well, would you at least make me a condolence PB&J?
Well, would you at least make me a condolence PB&J?
.jpg "cute wallpapers of lovers.")
mhuk01
Jul 24, 04:28 PM
i ordered a custom build macbook and apple bluetooth mouse last friday. should i cancel the order for the mouse and wait? or because of all the mighty mouse problems should i be happy with a completely sleek standard apple bluetooth mouse?
Full of Win
Apr 29, 04:17 PM
It's 'improper' because it is not advantageous for Apple. I wonder if these same posters raised red flags when it was reported that Apple had boxed out the competition by 'pre-buying' touch panels for the next two years from the major manufacturers? Or when they did the same thing a few years ago (buying huge yields at very favorable prices) with flash memory?
Lethal
That may be, but could the new prices also be from a recent deal between Amazon and the content providers? Can't agreements be changed after a specified time? Also, what Amazon is selling is not the same as what Apple sells. The music is the same, but the format and delivery options are different; with Apple it is in AAC that can be converted to MP3, whereas Amazon sells just the MP3.
Lethal
That may be, but could the new prices also be from a recent deal between Amazon and the content providers? Can't agreements be changed after a specified time? Also, what Amazon is selling is not the same as what Apple sells. The music is the same, but the format and delivery options are different; with Apple it is in AAC that can be converted to MP3, whereas Amazon sells just the MP3.
peapody
Sep 13, 06:00 PM
hubba hubba. i guess? hahaha
3 month supply set me back $70 with copay. $370 with no insurance!! :eek: Boys are lucky.
3 month supply set me back $70 with copay. $370 with no insurance!! :eek: Boys are lucky.
3goldens
May 4, 02:04 PM
No new iphone in July?
What am I going to do!
And this information comes from where you say, one of those idiot ATT customer reps?
Must be true then!
But who cares really!
People who can't wait a few more months need to get a grip!
After all this leaves so much more time for all the rumors and speculation to get really cranked up!
What am I going to do!
And this information comes from where you say, one of those idiot ATT customer reps?
Must be true then!
But who cares really!
People who can't wait a few more months need to get a grip!
After all this leaves so much more time for all the rumors and speculation to get really cranked up!
63dot
Mar 1, 08:40 AM
Over the years, Sheen has shown himself to be pretty volatile. But that being said, Chuck Lorre is also a piece of work. What's funny, but not surprising, is how in many ways the two guys are similar.
Sure, Charlie has had great success with this show and was in some high profile movies, and sure Chuck Lorre has been at the helm of some high profile projects, but somewhere along the way, nobody told either of these men they were not God.
Anyway, it will be interesting, yet predictable, to see this war of words back and forth. I don't think the world would miss Sheen or Lorre leaving Hollywood.
Sure, Charlie has had great success with this show and was in some high profile movies, and sure Chuck Lorre has been at the helm of some high profile projects, but somewhere along the way, nobody told either of these men they were not God.
Anyway, it will be interesting, yet predictable, to see this war of words back and forth. I don't think the world would miss Sheen or Lorre leaving Hollywood.
Mac7
Apr 13, 07:24 PM
Hope it comes soon. Before my return elgibility runs out.
funwithamar
Apr 14, 05:23 AM
Duh, I can't believe some of the comments there...
Edit: Some here speculate in an iOS + OS X merge, and I guess that *could* happen. That could be compatible with iOS 3.0 and fit that list. Perhaps it's the biggest surprise Apple is holding back for OS X Lion. .
yes yes ....and they bring out a new magic mouse with the accelerometer and gyroscope so it can be used as a remote :D
Edit: Some here speculate in an iOS + OS X merge, and I guess that *could* happen. That could be compatible with iOS 3.0 and fit that list. Perhaps it's the biggest surprise Apple is holding back for OS X Lion. .
yes yes ....and they bring out a new magic mouse with the accelerometer and gyroscope so it can be used as a remote :D
Les Kern
Apr 24, 11:08 AM
I have had several friends and family members try Android with several different models, trying so hard to believe it was better then iOS iP4, but finally giving in and now love their iP4s! They all have iPads as well!
A friend in IT was all over his new EVO, saying and trying to show how superior it was to his old iPhone. Within a month or two the EVO was gone, replaced with an iPhone4. Why? He said it was a dead end. While a few things were really nice, it was buggy, there were too few apps, and it was just no fun to use.
Life should be fun, not fraught with glitches and a tool that had no soul.
A friend in IT was all over his new EVO, saying and trying to show how superior it was to his old iPhone. Within a month or two the EVO was gone, replaced with an iPhone4. Why? He said it was a dead end. While a few things were really nice, it was buggy, there were too few apps, and it was just no fun to use.
Life should be fun, not fraught with glitches and a tool that had no soul.
kirk26
Apr 15, 10:25 AM
Battery life is much better with this update. I stream Sirius radio all day and it lasts longer now. Haters gotta hate.
savar
Oct 23, 08:58 AM
Why would they make such a stupid move? I can tell you this much, they have just lost my support as a vendor! How do they expect me to to sell a $300 copy of windows to a home user just so he can use Microsoft's O/S on his Mac? Oh well I'm sure they know what they are doing or do they?!?!?
:confused:
So this is true?? I suppose this isn't any different than Apple saying that you can't run Mac OS X on non-Apple hardware, is it?
:confused:
So this is true?? I suppose this isn't any different than Apple saying that you can't run Mac OS X on non-Apple hardware, is it?
jon1987
Apr 28, 04:37 PM
I really dont get how people are not seeing this in the photo...its blatantly obvious that its bigger. Take a look at my 'digitally enhanced' (HA!) version:
Image (http://forums.macrumors.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=283405&stc=1&d=1304026216)
Your arrow is pointing at the back edge of the phone because it's slightly raised.
If you zoom in on the photo your can also tell the white iPhone is maybe quarter of a mm further forward. It's only a pixel or two on the photo.
Image (http://forums.macrumors.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=283405&stc=1&d=1304026216)
Your arrow is pointing at the back edge of the phone because it's slightly raised.
If you zoom in on the photo your can also tell the white iPhone is maybe quarter of a mm further forward. It's only a pixel or two on the photo.
AaronEdwards
Apr 28, 07:52 PM
You don't get it.
That's all you got?
What don't I get?
How I can get a 3GS for $50? Or how I can get a 3GS for $50 with a $10/month additional line? Please tell me how.
Or why paying 90% of the total cost for a 4 and only getting a 3GS is a good deal.
That's all you got?
What don't I get?
How I can get a 3GS for $50? Or how I can get a 3GS for $50 with a $10/month additional line? Please tell me how.
Or why paying 90% of the total cost for a 4 and only getting a 3GS is a good deal.
AnyKey
Oct 23, 08:10 AM
Well then...if this is the case, who needs XP or Vista? I may just install Windows RG on my macbook pro when I get it. And yes...we educated Windows RG users use only the best hardware. I'll be waiting for C2D too. :)
For me, it's either Mac OS Windows RG. :rolleyes:
For a preview of Windows RG: http://www.albinoblacksheep.com/flash/winrg.php
:D ;)
For me, it's either Mac OS Windows RG. :rolleyes:
For a preview of Windows RG: http://www.albinoblacksheep.com/flash/winrg.php
:D ;)
craigatkinson
Jul 25, 09:17 AM
Nope, I checked. No educational discount on the mighty mouse. :(
Your kidding?
PS: Maybe I can get an Edu discount on it, also.
Your kidding?
PS: Maybe I can get an Edu discount on it, also.
Collin973
Jul 10, 10:38 AM
Good to see. I can't wait to buy it in 07. Knowing this was going to be released stopped me from getting Iwork 06...
Eraserhead
Jul 25, 09:48 AM
And you're really going to use all that are you? With the exception of RAM and hard disks, most computer consumers never expand their computers.
Few even upgrade their HD's, i think apple users upgrade the RAM but that's only because Apple have *never* sold a computer (at least since the original iMac) with enough RAM.
One interesting think I have realised from going back to a PC laptop (i'm borrowing it and waiting for new MBP's/MB's) is how annoying many of the applications are, for example WinSCP, when you move a file across it brings up a dialog to confirm where you want to copy it to, even though the odds are 99.99% that you want to move it from the visible directory on the left to the visible directory on the right. An OS X application (eg Fugu or Cyberduck in this case) would never do that. Basically even if Vista is superior to Leopard in ease of use and features (which ain't gonna happen :p) because OS X app's are in general designed better I'd probably keep using a Mac, this is an excellent reason to switch too.
Few even upgrade their HD's, i think apple users upgrade the RAM but that's only because Apple have *never* sold a computer (at least since the original iMac) with enough RAM.
One interesting think I have realised from going back to a PC laptop (i'm borrowing it and waiting for new MBP's/MB's) is how annoying many of the applications are, for example WinSCP, when you move a file across it brings up a dialog to confirm where you want to copy it to, even though the odds are 99.99% that you want to move it from the visible directory on the left to the visible directory on the right. An OS X application (eg Fugu or Cyberduck in this case) would never do that. Basically even if Vista is superior to Leopard in ease of use and features (which ain't gonna happen :p) because OS X app's are in general designed better I'd probably keep using a Mac, this is an excellent reason to switch too.
puma1552
Nov 15, 09:29 PM
Gotta say I disagree with you on that, I've always thought good quality clobber is worth the money.
Just for why is that I'm facing a new wardrobe after eleven+ years service from the last (I tend to do things periodically) when I had a half dozen suits made up and some good shoes. As for the suits they hang better than anything off the peg to this day and I'll get a couple more years out of them yet (the cut and full canvassing mean that you save money on the price per wear basis as well as being continuously better turned out). Its really win, win, win (especially if you like to support skilled local crafts &c.)
Personally I like wearing the same clothes for years- my shoes probably have seen thousands of miles and get more comfortable with every step (I like having a cobbler too- even if he's only seen two pairs from a rotation of three over a decade:eek:). Similarly shirts just get better until they turn into mufti (I rotate shirts and treat them well so easily get 3+ years until the collars/cuffs fray past the 'would you be happy to meet the Queen in that?' point- fortunately thats when I luv 'em the most!)
I suppose its diffrent strokes/ diffrent folkes, but I really don't get the whole sweatshop/ single use/ el cheapo clothes, nor the crassness of expensive branded clothes with a only slightly longer life. Not a value judgement, but really don't see any worth in doing it this way. /2p
No doubt, I like nice things too and have my selection of vainness in my closet (diamond Gucci watch, LV messenger bag/wallets/etc) but when it comes to clothes, sure I'll spend $100 on a nice collared shirt or nice jeans or something, but $250 is just too far for me personally--shirts DO wear out for me after only a year or two. Sure they look good and still feel fine--until you buy a new one and have a fresh snug one to compare it to--then the old one just feels like junky crap that has lost its form over the last year or two, at least for me. Don't get me wrong, I don't buy/can't stand crappy cheap clothes, all my stuff is upper-end, but there's a personal limit where the value just isn't there for the money on short term clothes--I switch stuff out every couple years as styles/tastes change anyway.
Just for why is that I'm facing a new wardrobe after eleven+ years service from the last (I tend to do things periodically) when I had a half dozen suits made up and some good shoes. As for the suits they hang better than anything off the peg to this day and I'll get a couple more years out of them yet (the cut and full canvassing mean that you save money on the price per wear basis as well as being continuously better turned out). Its really win, win, win (especially if you like to support skilled local crafts &c.)
Personally I like wearing the same clothes for years- my shoes probably have seen thousands of miles and get more comfortable with every step (I like having a cobbler too- even if he's only seen two pairs from a rotation of three over a decade:eek:). Similarly shirts just get better until they turn into mufti (I rotate shirts and treat them well so easily get 3+ years until the collars/cuffs fray past the 'would you be happy to meet the Queen in that?' point- fortunately thats when I luv 'em the most!)
I suppose its diffrent strokes/ diffrent folkes, but I really don't get the whole sweatshop/ single use/ el cheapo clothes, nor the crassness of expensive branded clothes with a only slightly longer life. Not a value judgement, but really don't see any worth in doing it this way. /2p
No doubt, I like nice things too and have my selection of vainness in my closet (diamond Gucci watch, LV messenger bag/wallets/etc) but when it comes to clothes, sure I'll spend $100 on a nice collared shirt or nice jeans or something, but $250 is just too far for me personally--shirts DO wear out for me after only a year or two. Sure they look good and still feel fine--until you buy a new one and have a fresh snug one to compare it to--then the old one just feels like junky crap that has lost its form over the last year or two, at least for me. Don't get me wrong, I don't buy/can't stand crappy cheap clothes, all my stuff is upper-end, but there's a personal limit where the value just isn't there for the money on short term clothes--I switch stuff out every couple years as styles/tastes change anyway.
Mord
Apr 25, 11:02 AM
In all ways except plumbing, she's a woman.
Are you mad enough to join in the beat down?
Not that I don't appreciate your sentiment, but her pluming has been reported as female (unless you mean a womb?). Though yes, even if it wasn't it wouldn't change the fact that she's a woman
People seem to be making all kinds of assumptions about this girl they've never met, it's ridiculous.
Are you mad enough to join in the beat down?
Not that I don't appreciate your sentiment, but her pluming has been reported as female (unless you mean a womb?). Though yes, even if it wasn't it wouldn't change the fact that she's a woman
People seem to be making all kinds of assumptions about this girl they've never met, it's ridiculous.
MacSlut
May 4, 04:03 AM
I qualify for a full upgrade on 6/25/2011, I bought the iPhone 4 on launch day, 6/24/2011. So there's some other reason why this guy isn't qualifying for the upgrade. AT&T treats upgrades differently based on monthly plan, how long you've been a customer, and if you've paid your bills on time.
AT&T likes me, so I always get a full upgrade early. They really like my sister. She also upgrades yearly and loses or destroys an iPhone mid-year, and still gets upgrades both times.
That being said, I've seen nothing but speculation and baseless rumors about a Fall launch for the new iPhone.
AT&T likes me, so I always get a full upgrade early. They really like my sister. She also upgrades yearly and loses or destroys an iPhone mid-year, and still gets upgrades both times.
That being said, I've seen nothing but speculation and baseless rumors about a Fall launch for the new iPhone.
whooleytoo
Apr 13, 02:24 PM
Not a single analyst has explained WHY this would be better for Apple than simply selling more Apple TVs. They just say it like it makes sense and expect us to believe them.
I'm sorry, but that's not good enough.
WHY would Apple want to take on shipments of large, expensive packages?
WHY would Apple want to limit their market for a new product to people who want an entirely new TV?
WHY do you think Apple cares more about what logo is on the back of the TV that by what software is showing up on the screen?
And WHY isn't the Apple TV good enough for the goal of getting the iOS and iTunes worlds into the living room?
I think the changes to the latest Apple TV is a sign of where Apple wants to be headed. The next Apple TV will be even smaller and come free when you buy a Mac, iPad, or iPhone. Wait and see! Just like giving e-mail away helps Google's ecosystem, so does getting Apple TVs into people's houses help Apple's ecosystem.
Selling some $2,000 TV doesn't help with that.
I'd agree that it doesn't make much sense. But that doesn't mean I think Apple will never do it! Apple (i.e. Jobs?) are obsessed with controlling the entire user-experience, and as such might love to add their own HDTV to complete the solution.
There's a lot of potential to add a lot more integration between TV and Mac/PC. Typically this has just been "PC as a video/audio source for the TV", but you could add on-screen notifications/messages even while watching other sources (such as cable), far better TV-based browsers, faster & better looking TV-guides etc.
Yes there is a lot of competition out there, but Apple are quite good at taking on a "commodity" low-margin market and adding value to it and thriving. And I'd love to see the design they come up with.
I'm sorry, but that's not good enough.
WHY would Apple want to take on shipments of large, expensive packages?
WHY would Apple want to limit their market for a new product to people who want an entirely new TV?
WHY do you think Apple cares more about what logo is on the back of the TV that by what software is showing up on the screen?
And WHY isn't the Apple TV good enough for the goal of getting the iOS and iTunes worlds into the living room?
I think the changes to the latest Apple TV is a sign of where Apple wants to be headed. The next Apple TV will be even smaller and come free when you buy a Mac, iPad, or iPhone. Wait and see! Just like giving e-mail away helps Google's ecosystem, so does getting Apple TVs into people's houses help Apple's ecosystem.
Selling some $2,000 TV doesn't help with that.
I'd agree that it doesn't make much sense. But that doesn't mean I think Apple will never do it! Apple (i.e. Jobs?) are obsessed with controlling the entire user-experience, and as such might love to add their own HDTV to complete the solution.
There's a lot of potential to add a lot more integration between TV and Mac/PC. Typically this has just been "PC as a video/audio source for the TV", but you could add on-screen notifications/messages even while watching other sources (such as cable), far better TV-based browsers, faster & better looking TV-guides etc.
Yes there is a lot of competition out there, but Apple are quite good at taking on a "commodity" low-margin market and adding value to it and thriving. And I'd love to see the design they come up with.